The purpose of this article is to use Fisher’s calculations relating to the spread of beneficial mutations to show that the Scientology cult is headed for self-destruction. Fisher’s views on genetics are presented in his book, The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, published by Clarendon Press in 1930 (Fisher was a famous British mathematician who also was one of the two founders of modern mathematical statistics; the other founder was a famous Russian mathematician, Kolmogorov).
Unfortunately, Fisher’s book is not among the Google books. I provided a link to another Google book that gives a very good overview of Fisher’s works. http://books.google.com/books?id=TLtsP3 ... ht&f=false
One might ask this question -- what Fisher’s calculations of the spread of a mutation have to do with CoS expansion-shrinkage? But it is common practice for some sciences to use mathematical apparatus developed in unrelated sciences to draw valid conclusions. For example, a huge chunk of control systems theory is used in construction of economic models. As a stock market analyst, I occasionally use the ARMA model, which was initially intended for adaptive control of electromechanical devices, to predict short-term price changes of a particular stock. There is plenty of example like this one, but I do not want to burden the reader with nonessential details.
Fisher’s calculations show that a random mutation that started in a single member of species cannot spread to the entire species population, it becomes practically undetectable after the passage of 15 generations (Fisher was an evolutionist who believed in another version of the evolutionary theory, which is one of the varieties of the theory of nonrandom mutations). Fisher’s calculations and conclusions could be found in the aforementioned book.
The spread of the Scientology “doctrine” is mathematically equivalent to the spread of a single mutation with Hubbard being a single mutated organism which transmitted his mutation to the mankind in random fashion.
The word “random” in this context requires further explanation. Here it means that CoS do not follow any particular recruitment scheme, they choose potential Scientologists at random, without applying any particular selection criteria (they try to sell the Dianetics book to everyone, which is their recruitment tool).
What a certain selection criteria would look like? Suppose, cult XYZ choose its recruits among the people with high school diploma only (this is a highly improbable selection criterion, I use it for the purpose of illustration only). Then Fisher’s calculations are not applicable to XYZ. This does not mean that XYZ will survive, it simply means that the calculations based on a theory of nonrandom selection procedure are needed to predict its future.
In some cases CoS use a well-defined recruitment criterion, such as targeting of celebrities, to increase their membership. But the number of Scientology celebrities is less that 1% of the total membership, so this recruiting technique has an infinitesimal effect on the cult’s fate.
Fisher’s end formula could be used directly to predict how long would it take for Scientology to go into oblivion. But it requires the knowledge of two parameters, the current number of active Scientologists and the CoS attrition rate, which are not available. As an alternative, one might consider a quantitative analysis of Scientology data.
Fisher’s formula predicts that initially there will be increase in the number of mutated organisms, which will reach its maximum at some time, and then a steady decline without recovery will follow. This prediction concurs with the CoS growth-decline -- at first the number of Scientologists was on the rise until it reached the maximum during so-called St. Hill years, then the final stage of decline begun.
OTHER CILTS AND RELIGIONS.
One might ask this question -- if the Fisher theory is correct, why, for example, Christianity did not go into extinction?
Jesus was using a procedure of nonrandom selection by propagating his religion among the poor people. It appears he was not interested in recruitment of the rich folk. I read the Bible only once, but I remember that he said that it is practically impossible for a rich person to go to Heaven (I do not remember his exact words).
Judaism was intended for the people of Hebrew descent only, which is an example of nonrandom selection procedure.
Obviously, Buddha was using some kind of nonrandom selection procedure, although there is no data about it (too many Buddhist texts were lost during the course of centuries).
Just because a religion or a cult do not use a random selection procedure does not guarantee that it will survive, this means that a theory of a spread of a random mutation is not applicable to it.
DIFFERENT MODE OF SURVIVAL.
Fisher’s calculations show that Scientology membership will dwindle to zero. But this does not necessarily mean that CoS won’t survive as a non-cult corporation. If my assumptions and based on them calculations presented at another thread are correct, a large portion of CoS income does not come from the Bridge-related courses, it comes from the investment that has nothing to do with Scientology. In this case CoS may survive as a non-scientology financial or real estate firm.
I do not know how Freezone do the recruiting. If they recruit former Scientologists only, their organization will die along with CoS. But if new people are joining them, then their history will repeat the one of CoS, which is a rapid expansion and a prolonged decay without possibility of recovery.
MESSAGE TO THE OSA IDIOTS.
Your beloved “Church” is doomed, you are screwed.