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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 5:41 pm 
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If CoS streamlined, it would shake CoS to its core. It would reveal to inside workers that CoS is over the hill and can't pretend to be the "fastest growing religion." Lots of execs will lose fancy job titles. Top execs might quit, miffed that "their" corporation wasn't essential, and unhappy with their new, lower, position. Middle managers loyal to their execs might follow out the door. Many execs know too much, and Miscavige would have to transfer some supposedly loyal workers to prison guard duty to forever guard newly imprisoned execs that Miscavige fears. Perhaps those guards are also miffed that "their" corporation got the axe, and might engineer a prison break when the now-smaller group of top execs are with Miscavige at an Ideal Org opening !

On my CoS Organization Chart*, I counted over 100 separate groups, from big ones like WISE or CCHR, to supposedly independent charities like Artists for Human Rights. There are hundreds more Class V orgs, Missions, ABLE franchises, schools, and charity chapters. This represents many cherished careers by long time Sea Org, regular staff, and public members who may barely have a high school education.
'
So, CoS is unlikely to streamline, UNLESS they have to pay minimum wage and overtime, and provide housing better than the regulations for migrant farm workers.

* viewtopic.php?f=9&t=31561


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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Sun Dec 04, 2011 2:40 am 
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Hubbard required that all orgs grow to old Saint Hill size before OT levels 9&10 are released. I'll bet OT8's are growing more and more impatient. It should be obvious that it's just not going to happen. So the incredible shrinking CO$ offers a bridge that cannot be completed (The published bridge goes to OTXV).


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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Sun Dec 04, 2011 1:21 pm 
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CoS solve their managerial problems in a truly unique way.
When an Org’ stats are down, the staff are put on a rice-and-been diet. Still something must be done to push the stats up. To fix the problem, a member of another Org is sent on a rescue mission, his job is to take over the failing Org and bring it to a gold standard.
I always felt sorry for the “missionaries” -- they must wear full Sea Org uniforms, including jackets, all day long. Southern California summers are very hot, poor things sweat like pigs in their uniforms. Then there is this horrible sword hanging over their heads -- if they fail to do their job, they will be sent to RPF. A friend of mine had a nervous breakdown after two days on a mission. But she was a rookie and did not know that no one goes to RPF for a screw-up. In fact, not a single person was able to complete a mission successfully. In order to prevent a “savior” from joining the RPF crew, his mission is aborted after couple of weeks and his is sent back to his Org. There is a special procedure designed by Hubbard to make this outcome possible, although I never saw the HCOB with its description.
ASHO Day and ASHO Foundation used to have long queues of missionaries trying to save them. The end was always the same -- the head of the Org was replaced by a new head, the stats were down again but CMO (Commodore Messenger Org) were not taking action for a while, then a new cycle of failed missions would begin.
I just switched from ASHO Day to ASHO Foundation (I was taking courses at the lower end of the Bridge) when they were farting after the rice-and-beans breakfast. Then came announcement -- Stan of CMO will be temporarily taking over ASHO Foundation.
Stan was an extremely confident Sea Org member, the said right from the start that he will save the Org. I had several friends among the staff, none of them expressed confidence in Stan’s abilities. But he succeeded where everyone before him had failed. The stats went through the roof, Stan was hailed as a hero, his return to CMO was triumphant. Hubbard said once that a CMO member cannot fail, he was damn right about that!
I was so intrigued by this outcome that I decided to dig dipper and learn from Stan how to do the impossible. I wish I have never done my research because it was so disappointing! No, Stan did not fake the Org stats, as the reader may think -- the stats were real. But he transferred very successful course salesmen from OT Org to ASHO Foundation, a man and a woman. There were not making cold calls, they had plenty of leads. Instead of bringing students to OT Org, they were bringing fresh meat bodies to ASHO Foundation!
CMO always win.

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“This OT shit is driving me insane. On a positive side, I laugh a lot these days because I’m at a funny farm.”
L. Ron Hubbard

L. Ron Hubbard era un maestro de masturbacion fisica y mental.


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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 1:07 am 
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I was on staff in ASHO Foundation in '96, after the building had been renovated and there was a grand opening where DM gave a speech there. Then stats were down, and some missionaries came in to, as I understood it, slam ethics in on the org. The SO already treats its staff like shit, and already piles more on their plates than they can reasonably handle. Alot of staff, including myself, left on that one.


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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 12:47 pm 
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Some figures and analysis on Mission "birthday game" stats from Mathy Rathbun's blog yesterday.

http://markrathbun.wordpress.com/2011/1 ... the-stats/

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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 2:28 pm 
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bparker230 wrote:
I was on staff in ASHO Foundation in '96, after the building had been renovated and there was a grand opening where DM gave a speech there. Then stats were down, and some missionaries came in to, as I understood it, slam ethics in on the org. The SO already treats its staff like shit, and already piles more on their plates than they can reasonably handle. Alot of staff, including myself, left on that one.

Have you met Paul Drozdiak? He was working for ASHO Foundation when I was taking courses there. Paul was very ill, once I found him lying on the floor in his office. He asked me to buy a special brand of buttermilk that helps him to recover from a dizzy spell.

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“This OT shit is driving me insane. On a positive side, I laugh a lot these days because I’m at a funny farm.”
L. Ron Hubbard

L. Ron Hubbard era un maestro de masturbacion fisica y mental.


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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:15 am 
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Demented LRH wrote:
bparker230 wrote:
I was on staff in ASHO Foundation in '96, after the building had been renovated and there was a grand opening where DM gave a speech there. Then stats were down, and some missionaries came in to, as I understood it, slam ethics in on the org. The SO already treats its staff like shit, and already piles more on their plates than they can reasonably handle. Alot of staff, including myself, left on that one.

Have you met Paul Drozdiak? He was working for ASHO Foundation when I was taking courses there. Paul was very ill, once I found him lying on the floor in his office. He asked me to buy a special brand of buttermilk that helps him to recover from a dizzy spell.


The name doesn't ring a bell, but then again, if I had a list in front of me of all of the ASHO staff who were there the same time that I was, I could probably only recognize a few. I arrived in late March '96 and the building was being renovated and not used. I wondered what had happened to almost all of the previous ASHO staff and someone told me "They blew." Shortly after the missionaries came in, I saw a lot of familiar faces running around in RPF uniforms. I don't know why, but alot of the ASHO staff got RPF'ed.
It has to suck being in the SO with a medical condition. Paul knew that the buttermilk helped him, and he was probably glad that you are the one who found him there. Who knows what the Indie "handling" would be. Maybe a touch assist or an assload of vitamins. An SO member must see the MLO (medical liason officer) before seeing a doctor. Look what happened to Lisa McPherson. I remember hoping that I didn't get sick in there. They say that they don't practice medicine but they automatically assume that an illness is psychosomatic or due to an out-ethics condition, or maybe just a vitamin dificiency. I called off one day from a course I was taking at my local org (not SO) because I had the flu. I was asked to come in anyway for a touch assist. It didn't help.


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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2011 3:38 am 
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Probably Paul left before you joined Sea Org. I met him once after I left Sea Org. I was still a Scientologist at that time, but I told him that he should leave Sea Org and start looking for medical help. He listened but said nothing.
As you said, the old ASHO staff blew. I heard that the only person who stayed was Wade Starr, but that may not be true, either. Wade was a good friend of mine, he was a Communication Director when we met.
Marcy, the tall one with the red hair, was sent to RPF when I was taking courses at ASHO Foundation. We all liked her, her stats were normal, people like her usually do not go to RPF. She spent two days at RPF, then was demoted and sent back to ASHO Foundation. When I asked her what happened she said that the person who gave her sec check was using a defective e-meter. She did not know why, on the first place, she was given that sec check. Marcy is in Clearwater now still working for CoS, I saw her Facebook page. Her husband Greg is no longer working for CoS.

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“This OT shit is driving me insane. On a positive side, I laugh a lot these days because I’m at a funny farm.”
L. Ron Hubbard

L. Ron Hubbard era un maestro de masturbacion fisica y mental.


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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:42 pm 
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I decided to bring this thread back in view of the recent anti-Scientology developments.

As I said before, the probability of survival of CoS is diminishing with each new generation of Scientology recruits. However, I have not said anything about the rate of Scientology decline -- will it remain constant, or will it increase, or will it decrease as the time goes by?

To answer this question, one must analyze the formula showing how a mutation spreads in a sexually propagating population.
The initial stages of the analysis are presented in the following article:
http://www.biologie.uni-hamburg.de/b-online/e40/40d.htm

My analysis shows that the rate of CoS membership decline increases until it reaches a freefall (90% decline rate).

What we are witnessing now is, probably, the approaching freefall of the official Scientology doctrine (the splinter Scientology groups such as the Indies, Freezone, etc., do not belong to this category).

The math itself cannot be used to predict specific events such as the Debbie Cook letter, TomKat split and other events damaging to the cult. But it can be used to predict that the damage done to Scientology by the events that are unfavorable to it will be becoming more and more severe in a near future.
====================
Let’s take a look at unofficial Scientology represented by the Freezoners, Indies and other splinter groups. What does the future hold for them?

The Fisher theory is not applicable to them because it is based on the concept of a single random mutation. One must use a theory of nonrandom mutations to predict their future. I have developed such theory in order to prove that an overuse of the penicillin and other antibiotics does not cause a spread of mutated bacteria.

My article, Periodicity of Epidemics, was published in the Journal of Theoretical Biology. In order to read this journal online you must be its subscriber, which costs money. I cannot post my article in its entirety at this website because the OCMB software does not accept mathematical formulae. I can post the article without the formulae, but this is not a desirable option. But I can email my article to anyone interested in it.

Definition. Nonrandom mutation: A mutation caused by environmental factors such as chemicals and radiation. Nonrandom mutations usually occur in more than one member of species.

I have proved that a nonrandom mutation that occurred in several members of species cannot spread to the entire species population. My theory is a substantial improvement of the Fisher theory because it deals with mutations in several members of species. My proof is based on the probability theory.

Moving on to the Scientology case --in biological terms, the Scientologists who have left CoS but are still practicing their religion are the recipients of “nonrandom mutation“, which is their Scientology indoctrination. Even though some of them are trying to bring fresh blood to their organizations, Scientology as a whole is doomed -- my theory of nonrandom mutations shows that the number of practicing Scientologists is in a steady decline, with the decline rate being constant (Fisher’s theory of random mutations predicts accelerating rate of CoS membership decline).

Scientology is facing imminent death!

===========================
This section of the article is intended for the OSA agents who monitor this website -- I want to stick a big fork in their ass!

Hubbard predicted that Scientology will become the dominant religion of the future. His prediction is based on the assumption that EVERYONE who comes in contact with the Tech will become a Scientologist. This assumption shows that the Founder’s mental abilities were child-like.

I have used the probability theory to prove that Scientology is a dying doctrine. This shows that my intellectual capabilities are far superior than the ones of Hubbard. Intellectually-wise, compared to me Hubbard is a piece of shit.

You can try to defend the Founder by finding mistakes in my article, Periodicity of Epidemics. In fact, I welcome any attempt to prove me wrong. But my article is flawless, its initial assumptions and mathematical derivations are 100% correct.

_________________
“This OT shit is driving me insane. On a positive side, I laugh a lot these days because I’m at a funny farm.”
L. Ron Hubbard

L. Ron Hubbard era un maestro de masturbacion fisica y mental.


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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 12:11 am 
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You need to word-clear Hubbard management tech.

Stats must always grow. It is unacceptable to have even an occasional plateau or drop... they always have to be on the rise.

Since he churned out Dianetics in a rum- and pill-induced flurry, nearly 75 years ago, Scientology has been in one phase of unprecedented expansion after another. It has regularly doubled in size, over and over again.

Now, I know this exponential growth has mathematical limitations and, according to Scientology's claims, all people living on Earth should be members by now. However, that fails to take into account that Xenu transported thetans from
the other planets in the Galactic Confederacy to Teegeeack. The 76 planets had an average population of 178 billion, meaning there are 13,528,000,000,000 potential recruits, not the mere 7 billion world population that the wog world recognizes.

There are millions of Scientologists, but most are body thetans who think they're somebody's big toe.


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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2012 1:41 pm 
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I have posted my article at www.blog.com

Here is a link to the article:

http://tsotso97.blog.com/2012/10/20/spr ... epidemics/

Few words about the article: This is unedited version, the math is correct but the text contains several syntax errors. The blog software cannot copy the integral sign, so it is missing from the text. However, there is only one integral sign, it should be inserted into the following formula: G(X) = G’(X)dx
=============================
The Fisher single-mutation formula, when applied to the spread of a religion, is based on the following assumptions: 1. A religion starts from a single person (the Founder); 2. A religion spreads randomly (in the case of Scientology this is random sales of the Dianetics book).

In my article these restrictions are removed. My article in modified form can be used to predict the spread of any religion. I came to conclusion that all religions that remain in their ORIGINAL forms are doomed.

This could be deduced from my article: A religion might be expanding after it was created even though its probability of its survival is diminishing with each passing generation. This conclusion seems counterintuitive, but it is based on the law of independent probabilities, which says that probabilities of independent events must be multiplied in order to calculate the probability of observing all these events.

At some point the probability of survival of a religion becomes so low that the shrinkage begins. I think this happens when the probability of survival falls below 50%. The figure, 50%, cannot be deduced directly from my article, in order to do that the constant “m”, which is used in the article, must be replaced with the function kP(x), where k is a constant and P(x) is a probability of survival of a religion. After this substitution one will get an equation that cannot be solved in closed form, it must be solved by a method of numerical approximations.

The only mathematical way for a religion to survive is to produce new denominations -- in this case the growth process begins anew with each denomination. Some denominations will die, but the others will continue their existence because they will be getting replenishments from the dying denominations.

CoS version of Scientology will remain in unmodified form for obvious reason unless DM replaces it with Miscavinology, which is a highly improbable outcome. Also, former CoS members who became the Indies and FreeZoners are not planning to rejoin CoS.

CoS will die because it cannot change its dogma.

_________________
“This OT shit is driving me insane. On a positive side, I laugh a lot these days because I’m at a funny farm.”
L. Ron Hubbard

L. Ron Hubbard era un maestro de masturbacion fisica y mental.


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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2012 6:31 pm 
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Demented LRH wrote:
I have posted my article at http://www.blog.com

Here is a link to the article:

http://tsotso97.blog.com/2012/10/20/spr ... epidemics/

CoS will die because it cannot change its dogma.

DementedLRH,

Nice. The distinction between a correction to something mistaken, and a simple make-wrong, often arises as a delicate matter. One is often mistaken for another either at source or destination. Formulations do lead to peripheral observations and extrapolations which are not necessarily directly relevant to the formulation.

One observation relates to the Scn Condition of Power (which I continue to either not understand or not agree with in extended theory). As anything spreads through a population, it seems that the rate of increase will necessarily slow, down to the final instance of the last member of the population. In Scn terms, no matter how diverse the product, it would eventually tend toward a static, which would have no production statistic. E.g. a very great many instances of statistics would inevitably tend to the mathematical limit of zero, and this should be recognized; the only statistic that comes to mind as infinite is creativity, which would initiate from a static.

The ORIGINAL form of a religion is an interesting proposition, as one could argue that condition exists only once in the originator, and never recurs, even within the originator. Duplication is easily represented mathematically as quantitative equality, but is not easy to obtain in behavior. It could then be proposed that each attempted duplication is in fact a new instance more than a duplication. Nevertheless some elements of truth appear to be immutable, and imperfect duplications of these tend toward more complete duplication, and theoretically again, to a static, the remnant of successive as-is-nesses (as-is-ness being perfect duplication).

I hadn't noticed this thread before, so I have a bit of reading and the article to review. (This is a blog, so I'm just gabbing informally a bit here, not publishing.)

Tenor.

P.S. There is also the proposition that although the basic formulations of each individual may be equal ("... all men are created equal"), each individual is unique, even at inception or creation, and only differentiates further(?). The relationships between mathematics and physics and humanities apparently continues to evolve; the strictures of theory compared to practicality. Very thought-provoking article!


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 Post subject: Re: Death of CoS is a Mathematical Inevitability.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:46 pm 
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Tenor wrote:
Demented LRH wrote:
I have posted my article at http://www.blog.com

Here is a link to the article:

http://tsotso97.blog.com/2012/10/20/spr ... epidemics/

CoS will die because it cannot change its dogma.

DementedLRH,

Nice. The distinction between a correction to something mistaken, and a simple make-wrong, often arises as a delicate matter. One is often mistaken for another either at source or destination. Formulations do lead to peripheral observations and extrapolations which are not necessarily directly relevant to the formulation.

One observation relates to the Scn Condition of Power (which I continue to either not understand or not agree with in extended theory). As anything spreads through a population, it seems that the rate of increase will necessarily slow, down to the final instance of the last member of the population. In Scn terms, no matter how diverse the product, it would eventually tend toward a static, which would have no production statistic. E.g. a very great many instances of statistics would inevitably tend to the mathematical limit of zero, and this should be recognized; the only statistic that comes to mind as infinite is creativity, which would initiate from a static.

The ORIGINAL form of a religion is an interesting proposition, as one could argue that condition exists only once in the originator, and never recurs, even within the originator. Duplication is easily represented mathematically as quantitative equality, but is not easy to obtain in behavior. It could then be proposed that each attempted duplication is in fact a new instance more than a duplication. Nevertheless some elements of truth appear to be immutable, and imperfect duplications of these tend toward more complete duplication, and theoretically again, to a static, the remnant of successive as-is-nesses (as-is-ness being perfect duplication).

I hadn't noticed this thread before, so I have a bit of reading and the article to review. (This is a blog, so I'm just gabbing informally a bit here, not publishing.)

Tenor.

P.S. There is also the proposition that although the basic formulations of each individual may be equal ("... all men are created equal"), each individual is unique, even at inception or creation, and only differentiates further(?). The relationships between mathematics and physics and humanities apparently continues to evolve; the strictures of theory compared to practicality. Very thought-provoking article!

Tenor,
I have been out of Scientology for a long time, I remember vaguely what “static” is, but I am not sure if my memories are correct.

In mathematical terms, there are 2 types of biological systems: Stable and unstable. A biological system is stable if the number of its units (members of species) remains approximately constant for a very long period of time. Examples of such systems are microscopic sea organisms, certain types of beetles, etc. Unless there are dramatic changes in the system conditions such as air and water pollution, introduction of previously unknown predators, etc., a system will remain stable. From a mathematician’s point of view, such system are not terribly interesting.
Unstable systems sometimes experience substantial growth before shrinkage which happens due to the limited food sources; the mathematicians love them because they provide plenty of data for the analysis.

Although religions are different from biological systems, in many cases the same equations that are used to described biological systems are applicable to them. The meta-physicists provide various explanations of these similarities including the nature’s desire for simplicity, God’s will (although it is not clear to me why God would prefer one thing and not the other), some kind of meta-static changes (probably, this explanation is similar to the one found in Scientology books) and many others.

But the positivists, including myself, reject all these explanations because they are not based on empirical grounds. The positivists follow Niels Bohr’s advice, which could be stated in the following form -- the scientists should be able to understand how the nature functions, not why it functions in a certain way.

I would add this to his words, “Only the Creator knows why laws of physics are the way they are; such knowledge is beyond human capabilities”.

_________________
“This OT shit is driving me insane. On a positive side, I laugh a lot these days because I’m at a funny farm.”
L. Ron Hubbard

L. Ron Hubbard era un maestro de masturbacion fisica y mental.


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