How many Scientologists are there - really?

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How many Scientologists are there - really?

Post by Fishdaddy » Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:24 am

There has been a lot of discussion as to how many Scientologists there really are. As I had access to actual figures, lists and stats when I was at the Int Base, I thought you might appreciate some factual information for a change.

The Church claims millions – the figure has been variously given as 8 or 10 million by Heber over the years, depending, I guess, on the alignment of the planets or what he had for breakfast. And early last year, Mike Rinder claimed 20 million in an interview - before he blew.

Well, here’s the actual data on the Church’s international address lists and statistics. This data is three years old – but then I doubt seriously if there’s been an increase!

Here’s the way it works: Orgs all over the world have their “CF” (Central Files), which is matched by their Addresso list. Addresso is the name index of Central Files. CF – by policy – includes everyone who has EVER bought anything from an organization, right back to the beginning. It’s against policy to ever retire names. You can only delete people who have died (nice of them), or dead-file “Suppressives.” Other than that, every name is kept.

There are two categories of names. The first is Book Buyers. That is anyone who has ever bought a book from an organization, including people who bought a copy of Dianetics or another Div 6 level book, and did nothing else. The second category is commonly called “Trained and Processed.” That’s anyone who has EVER bought training or auditing from an Org – including people who just took a Comm Course or a Div 6 Course and never did anything further.

Every Org sends its names to their Continental Office (CLO) and they keep a Continental Addresso in these two categories. And every Continent then sends their names to Int, and that becomes the Int Addresso. And, by the way, Missions send their names to the Orgs as well, so this also includes Mission names. So the Cont Addressos are the sum of the individual Org and Mission lists, and the Int list is the sum of the Cont lists – in other words, the total total internationally.

Here’s the punch line: The Int Addresso has about 200,000 names in the Trained and Processed category, and 2 million in the Bookbuyer category. That’s 200,000 people who have EVER bought a course or auditing, TOTAL, and 2 million who have EVER bought a book from an organization, TOTAL.

These lists are in pretty bad shape, and that’s quite a flap for International Scientology. From memory, about 20 to 30% of the list cannot be mailed to as they are “Address Unknowns” - people that have moved and they don’t have a current address. The Orgs have not been good about maintaining their lists over the years.

The other huge flap with these lists is that a huge percentage of those on the list are not active in Scientology. How many? No one knows. They are called, euphemistically, “off-lines Scientologists.” Ha! They really have no clue as to how many still consider themselves Scientologists.

How many on these lists are actually active? Let’s look at some more numbers. Every Org keeps a stat called “Bodies In The Shop” (BIS). That may sound like a stat for an auto repair business, but no, it’s an Org stat. It means anyone who came into the Org that week for any reason – training, processing, events, Sunday Service, whatever. It includes walk-ins. It includes people who are given a Comm Course, mini-course, whatever. Each person is counted only once that week (as far as we know!). That statistic (and this is as of three years ago) is 16,000 to 18,000, total. Worldwide.

Let’s look at Event Attendance internationally. This is counted and monitored after every event and is the subject of many meetings and plans and flaps. That’s why there’s always such a panic before an event and endless phone calls, badgering public, confirming and “reconfirming” on and on. 40,000 is considered a great event attendance. A usual event attendance is more like 20,000 to 30,000. This is all over the world, all countries, and includes video replays in remote areas.

So how many active Scientologists are there really? Based on what I know, I would say that a figure of 50,000 active Scientologists would be very optimistic. That would be on the high side.

As a non-Scientologist friend of mine put it, “that’s not even a good Raiders game.”

They claim 20 million? That number, I can tell you with certainty, is pulled out of a hat. In other words, to speak plainly, it’s a LIE.

They justify that to themselves by saying, well, that that is the number of people worldwide who have EVER been exposed to Hubbard or his books, including those who bought books in public bookstores, those who took WISE business courses or ABLE study courses without being told it was Scientology, or were handed a copy of The Way to Happiness and so on. It all totals up!

Well, say that’s true. And there are less than 50,000 still active? Let’s see, that means they must have a 99.75% failure rate, doesn’t it?

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Post by Dunvegan » Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:38 am

Thanks, Jeff.

And to think, I've been giving the stats the benefit of the doubt and saying "Free the Scientology 80,000."

Guess I'll have to just about halve that.

(I'm thinking that with Anonymous, Critics, ex-Scientologists, and assorted others, we have at least about 10,000+ and growing.

So, when are we going to convince governments to stop fearing this little group under the oppressive thumb of Tom Thumb and Psycho the Dwarf?)
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Post by Wieber » Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:52 am

Fishdaddy, is there a known attrition rate?

One of the stated purposes of division six was to drive more business down on the 'org' than the 'org' could drive away. That was from big daddy's own blubber lips so he knew, if no one else did, that scientology pissed people off regularly.

Every day there's a roll call for staff. There's a roll call for courses. There are people who drop 'off lines.' Do the 'orgs' keep statistics on the number of people missing from roll call and the number of people who can no longer be contacted by phone and by mail?

I'm just trying to get a sense of the shrink rate here.
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Post by Ladybird » Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:06 am

Thanks Jeff!

I agree with you that even 50,000 is probably on the high side, especially considering that most people on scientology mailing lists get multiple and duplicate mailings from multiple orgs, and often double mailings in different spellings of their own name! Also, we know how accurate scientology stats are. :roll:

I tried to figure out the real number of "active" (as in auditing and training on the bridge) scientologists by applying what I knew about the Silver Certification lines. My figures are probably a little low, since most staff and outer org students do not have their own meters, but here is what I came up with:

Mark VII e-meters have to be "silver certed" every 2 years, at a cost of 200 dollars each. Mark VIIs with serial numbers under 8,000 need to be updated before they are valid for use in any cult auditing at a cost of 800 dollars each. Nothing prior to a Mark VII can be used at all by an active auditor or scientologist. Mark VIIs with serial numbers after 8,000 still need to be updated and silver certed, but it will cost about 600 dollars, plus the 200 for a silver cert every 2 years.

Each and every one of these meters (regular or custom) has a serial number on it, and these are tracked by the cult. So if you sell your meter, you will be called into ethics and asked why you sold it, and if you buy a used meter, you will be called into ethics and asked why you didn't buy a new one from the cult.

According to my best information and research as of 2004;

THERE WERE 25,000 CURRENTLY SILVER CERTED E-METERS IN USE!!!!

Do the math...what does this say about how many ACTIVE scientologists there are World wide? (Every scientologist is supposed to have at least 2 meters in working order...so cut that in half.)

That means there are around 12,500 active scientologists with standard, silver certed e-meters...the only kind of e-meter allowed for use by RTC.

This is WORLD WIDE!!!

There is NOTHING different about a Mark VII or a Mark VII Super Quantum, and even the New and IMPROVED Mark VIII that will be out soon is basically the same wheatstone bridge, it will just cost you alot more clams.

Scientologists just need to look around and figure out that they are virtually alone in the world.

DM wants you to think you are saving the planet, when all the Hip Hip Hooray crap is really only a distraction so you won't notice his tiny hand in your pocket.

Ladybird
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Post by exstaff » Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:14 am

If there was as many as reported by David Jockstrap Miscavige then they wouldn't be broke right now... :lol:

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Post by ron's hat » Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:17 am

There are ZERO scientologists. Why?...because scientology is a scam that was built upon Blubbard making a few million for himself. There is NO truth to scientology...there is NO truth to the supposed 'TECH' of scientology....and there is no TRUTH to the supposed claim of 'clearing planet earth'.....Ergo.....there is no objective truth known as scientolopgy...there is only an illusion created to scam people out of millions and billions of dollars. If someone comes forth and claims that they are a 'scientologist' and they are intent on 'clearing planet earth'....than that person is a person completely deluded by their own claims to egomania....they deserve to be in an insane asylum so that they can't do any further damage to another human being. I don't mind people being insane....but when they are insane and they are determined that they should make other people insane....well.....they should be stopped.

There are NO scientologists...because there is NO scientology...it is an unfortunate illusion, and hopefully an illusion that no person shall ever be subjected to.
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Post by Don Carlo » Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:17 am

12,500 would be the # of e-meters owned. The number USED would be even lower. Think of all the people who've quit - they can't sell the damn things on eBay, and they paid so much it hurts to throw the e-meters in the rubbish. They might find a Freezone group and sell it there, or even join the group and get a little more use of the scam device.

I predicted years ago that by 2010 the Church of Scientology would shrink to a pitiful remnant of under 1,000, existing as parasites off sales of real estate and loot in offshore banks. They would still shrink in years after that as the money dwindles. This assumes lawsuits don't consume the Church. I believe CoS is crashing, no matter how pretty their websites, promotion materials, and tinsel at their annual events.

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Post by Tsar von Humbug » Tue Mar 11, 2008 4:00 am

Ladybird wrote:Thanks Jeff!

I agree with you that even 50,000 is probably on the high side, especially considering that most people on scientology mailing lists get multiple and duplicate mailings from multiple orgs, and often double mailings in different spellings of their own name! Also, we know how accurate scientology stats are. :roll:

I tried to figure out the real number of "active" (as in auditing and training on the bridge) scientologists by applying what I knew about the Silver Certification lines. My figures are probably a little low, since most staff and outer org students do not have their own meters, but here is what I came up with:

Mark VII e-meters have to be "silver certed" every 2 years, at a cost of 200 dollars each. Mark VIIs with serial numbers under 8,000 need to be updated before they are valid for use in any cult auditing at a cost of 800 dollars each. Nothing prior to a Mark VII can be used at all by an active auditor or scientologist. Mark VIIs with serial numbers after 8,000 still need to be updated and silver certed, but it will cost about 600 dollars, plus the 200 for a silver cert every 2 years.

Each and every one of these meters (regular or custom) has a serial number on it, and these are tracked by the cult. So if you sell your meter, you will be called into ethics and asked why you sold it, and if you buy a used meter, you will be called into ethics and asked why you didn't buy a new one from the cult.

According to my best information and research as of 2004;

THERE WERE 25,000 CURRENTLY SILVER CERTED E-METERS IN USE!!!!

Do the math...what does this say about how many ACTIVE scientologists there are World wide? (Every scientologist is supposed to have at least 2 meters in working order...so cut that in half.)

That means there are around 12,500 active scientologists with standard, silver certed e-meters...the only kind of e-meter allowed for use by RTC.

This is WORLD WIDE!!!

There is NOTHING different about a Mark VII or a Mark VII Super Quantum, and even the New and IMPROVED Mark VIII that will be out soon is basically the same wheatstone bridge, it will just cost you alot more clams.

Scientologists just need to look around and figure out that they are virtually alone in the world.

DM wants you to think you are saving the planet, when all the Hip Hip Hooray crap is really only a distraction so you won't notice his tiny hand in your pocket.

Ladybird
Ladybird,
This is great info. It's the best hard data I've seen for number of Scientologists that hasn't been fudged through the Scientology number massaging machine. It also compares well to Fishdaddy's BIS figure for 16,000-18,000/week, which as he points out, will be somewhat of an upper bound as its padded by walk ins and others that aren't active Scientologists.

A few questions:

1 - 25,000 currently 'valid' e-meters - could the number of practicing Scientologists be slightly higher than 12,500, where people in the same household double up using the same meters?

2 - Are the Silver Cert figures published anywhere? (I just doubt somehow Scientology would publish a figure so damning).

3 - Do we have a number for Scientology staff? This would be interesting to compare to Fishdaddy's 16,000-18,000 BIS figure, as it would give an indication for the number of active Scientology public.

I'd say an estimate of between 10,000 and 15,000 active Scientologists would be about right. With the Silver Cert & BIS figures both supporting this estimate, it's pretty hard to argue with.
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Post by ron's hat » Tue Mar 11, 2008 4:06 am

Ladybird wrote:Thanks Jeff!

I agree with you that even 50,000 is probably on the high side, especially considering that most people on scientology mailing lists get multiple and duplicate mailings from multiple orgs, and often double mailings in different spellings of their own name! Also, we know how accurate scientology stats are. :roll:

I tried to figure out the real number of "active" (as in auditing and training on the bridge) scientologists by applying what I knew about the Silver Certification lines. My figures are probably a little low, since most staff and outer org students do not have their own meters, but here is what I came up with:

Mark VII e-meters have to be "silver certed" every 2 years, at a cost of 200 dollars each. Mark VIIs with serial numbers under 8,000 need to be updated before they are valid for use in any cult auditing at a cost of 800 dollars each. Nothing prior to a Mark VII can be used at all by an active auditor or scientologist. Mark VIIs with serial numbers after 8,000 still need to be updated and silver certed, but it will cost about 600 dollars, plus the 200 for a silver cert every 2 years.

Each and every one of these meters (regular or custom) has a serial number on it, and these are tracked by the cult. So if you sell your meter, you will be called into ethics and asked why you sold it, and if you buy a used meter, you will be called into ethics and asked why you didn't buy a new one from the cult.

According to my best information and research as of 2004;

THERE WERE 25,000 CURRENTLY SILVER CERTED E-METERS IN USE!!!!

Do the math...what does this say about how many ACTIVE scientologists there are World wide? (Every scientologist is supposed to have at least 2 meters in working order...so cut that in half.)

That means there are around 12,500 active scientologists with standard, silver certed e-meters...the only kind of e-meter allowed for use by RTC.

This is WORLD WIDE!!!

There is NOTHING different about a Mark VII or a Mark VII Super Quantum, and even the New and IMPROVED Mark VIII that will be out soon is basically the same wheatstone bridge, it will just cost you alot more clams.

Scientologists just need to look around and figure out that they are virtually alone in the world.

DM wants you to think you are saving the planet, when all the Hip Hip Hooray crap is really only a distraction so you won't notice his tiny hand in your pocket.

Ladybird
Ladybird....step AWAY from the keyboard...you need a 'TIME OUT'!!!

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Post by songbird » Tue Mar 11, 2008 4:22 am

Thanks, Jeff - and Ladybird.
Realistic numbers at last.

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Post by opter » Tue Mar 11, 2008 4:45 am

I think that 50.000.00 is the most
members they have.

When I was on staff,from time to time we were sent to CENTRAL files to fish for more people to call in into the org. I used to hate it because many names were uncontactable ( no address or no phone number), some people didn't want anything to do with the org. and few people never answered messages we left on their phone.
Becaused we were ordered to go to CF to look for names,we went there and just pretended to look for names.
I used to bring some names and then " find out" that they were uncontactable. By then it was almost midday and I had to do other things on my post so I was allowed to go. :) It was such a charade.

My husband, my daughter and myself are not yet declared, so we are still on their list. :twisted:

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Post by Ladybird » Tue Mar 11, 2008 5:38 am

Tsar, The silver cert stats are not published, but I hope some body who has blown more recently can confirm what I have peiced together. E-meters were a big moneymaker for the cult, and sales of at least 2 each were heavily pushed. Some people had more than 2 meters, and public were regged to pay for e-meters for staff and students. We had 4, given as "awards", as did many staff, especially tech and qual. There were some rich publics who were regged to buy meters for all their outer org trainees. Then there were "special edition investment quality" meters that cost about 10 thousand dollars. (They had custom paint jobs, otherwise the same, but they were a "status symbol".) So it is hard to say, but I stand by my estimate of 12,500 active scientologists based on 25,000 certified meters.

Some of us were trying to figure out the number of Sea Org a while back, and we came up with around 5,000 world wide. Chuck Beatty wrote a post on it but I couldn't find it.

I did find this post by Ann Marie Woodard, and she confirms that in 2002 when she blew there were about 18,000 scientologists worldwide.
Well, I worked in the Data Bureau at Flag Liaison Office for 13 years so I have so much info and some of it I can recall pretty accurately.
(OSA is sure saying - "Oh NOOOO!!! Anyone but H-E-R!!!!", and I'm sure they will try some tactics to "shut me up", but I plan to post my own dirt and save them the trouble.)
Anyway, yes, the orgs were stat pushed to Saint Hill Size but also "establishment pushed" with missions, etc.
But, yes, none of those orgs (except CC International) were big and booming like your description of ASHO in the 70's, Programmer Guy or other orgs in those earlier times.
The point that I am making is the only org, in 2002 which was still truly Saint Hill Size was CC Int.
Now, regarding international stats, especially on long-term trends, I do have some info:
The most memorable one is the BIS (Bodies in the Shop -- people on-lines doing services) and that stat showed the following on a 25-30 year trend:
Uptrending from the 70's until 1986 and that is when it started to go down, down, down.
In 1986 I remember it being something like 40,000. Then it went down and down until in 2002 the average weekly, from what I recall, was 18,000.
So, it was less than half. And it wasn't going anywhere fast, either.
(imagine how depressing this was for me working day and night to try to do what I could to expand Scientology and the stats looked like this! I was often in tears over that and said, even out loud sometimes to others, "What's the point??")
Anyway, so the number of people that could be called Scientologists (as far as I'm concerned) is about 18,000, at least as of 2002. It's not millions or even hundreds of thousands. Sure, there are other people in missions and in the field and stuff. But, I want to make the point about 18,000 in orgs -- that includes ALL orgs --FSO, Sea Org orgs, Class V orgs, etc.
The other stats looked similar on a long-term graph, most of them peaking in 1986 and then going steadily down.
That's as much as I can recall right now, but I'll spend some time racking my brains.
Yes, I'm sure Kristi would love to talk to me -- how do I reach her?
Sorry, Pit Bull, don't really have much info on "Davey", as you call him. I saw him a few times and he came into my office/org for inspections and the like, but that's it. I'm sure you're right, though.
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Post by Sea Horse » Tue Mar 11, 2008 7:35 am

I was thinking about the 50,000 members and trying to compare it with the number of Sea Org members plus Class V and mission staff. I always was told that there were 2000-3000 Sea Org at the Big Blue complex (et al). There were 200 staff at CC Int. Gold/Int had several hundred. There were several thousand at Flag/FSO. We know there are staff at many of the Class V Orgs. Those orgs having been "pushed" to St Hill size have over a hundred. Faltering/limping orgs may have a small handful (I remember one "org" with just 5 staff).

So if you add up all the staff and compare it with the number of Scientologists... holy moley... that a very high staff-to-customer ratio.
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Post by Sea Horse » Tue Mar 11, 2008 7:37 am

Realistically, in a Class V org only about 5-10% of the public would have an emeter. You have to factor that many are early enough on the Bridge to not need one... yet. And those who first buy them only buy one (usually). They don't need two until they start DOING auditing. If they're still in training, they'll borrow the second meter. If they become a "real" auditor, then they'll likely have two. Anyone on the OT levels, auditing themselves, will probably have two (though some may be borrowed, most are probably owned).

Meters can be bought and sold online through www.buyscn.com. Some are sold by Scios, some by ex-Scios, and some by whoever-found-it-at-the-flea-market.
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Post by Tsar von Humbug » Tue Mar 11, 2008 7:50 am

From: http://lermanet.com/howmany.htm
In the Scientologists Online[tm] effort to create web sites that point at Scientology to raise google ratings, there are only about 16,000 names - and this is after a massive campaign to get as many scientologists as possible to have their own Scientology Online websites -- even people who don't have computers or email
-- to maximize the apparent number of people who are willing to publicly say they are proudly a Scientologist. As I said, that effort only managed to find about 16,000 people.

Of the 16,000, about 8500 are in the US and of those, 3700 in California, 1500 in Florida, and the rest scattered.

In the great millenium event in LA last December Scientologists everywhere were heavily pushed to attend and to bring along family and friends. This was an event that all the hard core people in Southern California and many in other western states would want to attend. And they did not completely fill an arena set up for 14-16,000 people. And they doctored photos of the crowd to fill empty seats with swatches of people lifted from nearby, as Arnie Lerma discovered and revealed to the world and to Scientology's extreme embarrassment.
Also, I tried to collate census data some time ago.
How many Scientologists are there?
US census reported 55,000 Scientologists.
Fudging the figures for the rest of the world gave an estimate of 98,000 - 125,000, based on very generous assumptions.

With a list of Scientology organisations by country, I could revise these figures.

One problem with trying to work from census data is that the figures are somewhat dated, which tends to overestimate actual figures, as Scientology numbers continue to collapse.
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